Method
Simple math. Assumed labels. No fake precision.
Soft-mode metrics, in plain English
Each Soft pack checks four gates. Left side is your measured number; right side is the bar you must clear. Pass three or four → SCALE. Pass two → ITERATE. Pass zero or one → KILL.
D1Day-1 retention
Share of players who come back the day after install.
Pass when your % is at or above the minimum.
D7Day-7 retention
Share of players still coming back one week after install.
Pass when your % is at or above the minimum.
CPICost per install
Average dollars spent to get one install.
Pass when your $ is at or below the maximum.
ROASEarly return on ad spend
Early revenue ÷ ad spend. 0.40 means you earned $0.40 for every $1 spent so far.
Pass when your multiple is at or above the minimum.
Spend and burn
SpendUA spend to date
How much you have already spent on user acquisition for this soft launch.
Used only to size the Assumed burn envelope — not a pass/fail gate.
BurnAssumed burn envelope
Spend × burn multiplier (default 1.5). Rough dollars left if you keep the soft launch open.
Labeled Assumed — a planning envelope, not a forecast.
How the verdict is scored
- SCALE3 or 4 of 4 gates pass — Strong enough to widen spend.
- ITERATE2 of 4 gates pass — Fix weak gates before you scale.
- KILL0 or 1 of 4 gates pass — Stop — more weeks will not save it.
Default Soft bars (hybridcasual template)
- Day-1 retention (D1) — your % must be ≥ 35
- Day-7 retention (D7) — your % must be ≥ 12
- Cost per install (CPI) — your $ must be ≤ 2.50
- Early ROAS — your multiple must be ≥ 0.40 (earned $0.40 per $1 spent so far)
Count how many of those four pass. 3 or 4 → SCALE. Exactly 2 → ITERATE. 0 or 1 → KILL. Assumed burn envelope = UA spend to date × burn multiplier (default 1.5).
Live release
Baseline = mean revenue of all rows except the latest. Cliff if latest is ≥15% below that mean (tunable). Assumed $ at risk = daily revenue gap × horizon days (default 7).
What we refuse to pretend
Soft mode does not forecast lifetime ROAS from day-3 data. Live mode does not replace a crash reporter. If you need full LTV or RUM, keep the tools you already pay for.